|ARCTIC SPACE WHEATHER CENTER
WHAT: the term "space weather" means a state of near-Earth space at this time or for a certain time interval. Just as in the case of normal weather, is of interest to the possible impact of space weather on the person, life support system and his environment.
HOW: in the period of maximum activity on the Sun observed giant explosions, accompanied by the emission of large masses of matter, moving at great speed (up to 2000-3000 km / s). Interplanetary medium very sparse, but it permeated the entire solar magnetic field. Disturbances interplanetary magnetic in this time occur in the form of so-called "magnetic mirrors". Cosmic rays are particles. But unlike photons (light quanta) they have mass and charge. In particular, the case of protons, which are predominantly, composed cosmic rays. It is clear that cosmic rays, as well as all charged particles are exposed to a magnetic field, in this case, interplanetary. Distortions of the magnetic field caused by explosions on the sun, almost instantaneously transmitted to cosmic rays. Charged particles of cosmic rays, moving at small angles to the interplanetary magnetic field, easily penetrate through it. The other part of cosmic rays, which is moving at high angles to the magnetic field - is reflected from the mirror. The reflected magnetic mirror particles are focused in bunches, which is indicator approaches the earth disturbance of the interplanetary medium. On Earth, such as beams of cosmic rays and show up as forerunners of magnetic storms.
WHAT FOR: if the same time to register these changes in the global network of ground stations polar cosmic rays, it is possible to predict the extreme radiation and electromagnetic disturbance (magnetic storms) on the Earth's orbit with a lead time of approximately one day. The reached the recommended value of the forecast of space weather on the two orders of magnitude higher than those that obtained on the basis of American spacecraft, "suspended" in a “libration point” of the Sun-Earth. Existing (probe) methods of early detection of disturbances of the interplanetary medium on the spacecraft can achieve the forecast (and only weak perturbations) not more than tens of minutes, which is insufficient for practical use. On the other hand, the spacecraft themselves are breaking down under the influence, first of all, radiation exposure during the active period. In other words, there is a problem of reliability, with expensive complex based on several spacecraft.
WHY: the proposed method for forecasting space weather advantage of being simple implementation and cost-effectiveness, since the use of already existing global network of ground stations of cosmic rays (neutron monitors) and speed. The efficiency of the method consists in the fact that the rate of detection of shock waves almost immediately, because the cosmic rays move almost with the speed of light. And, most importantly, the distance (path length) from which the neutron monitors record the variation of cosmic rays rapidly approaching from the front of interplanetary disturbances, at least 10 times (an order of magnitude) greater than the distance from Earth to the seat of American spacecraft (SOHO) the "libration point". For this reason, the lead time for early detection of distortions of the magnetic field or magnetic congestion on the cosmic ray is more than 10 times (approximately one day) more advance achieved in the SC (about 1 hour).
PRICE: the reliability and effectiveness of "tele-vision" the purposes of space-based ground-based monitoring of background cosmic radiation above. And the economic efficiency of the proposed method speaks for itself. Cost and operation of U.S. satellite constellation prediction - about $ 1 billion in damage from all sorts of losses associated with the omission of such manifestations of space weather, is no less significant amount.